Max Est. MMI
Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence
Shaking Animations
Simulated bowling pin shaking at each city’s intensity level. Videos appear as they finish rendering.
BBP Simulation Comparison
How closely a physics-based simulation of this earthquake reproduces what the seismic network actually recorded. The simulation is run on the SCEC Broadband Platform and compared against real seismograms station by station.
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BBP Simulation Comparison
How closely a physics-based simulation of this earthquake reproduces what the seismic network actually recorded. The simulation is run on the SCEC Broadband Platform and compared against real seismograms station by station.
Emulated hardware. The simulation ran on arm64 under emulation. Amplitudes are not SCEC-reference-accurate, and this measurement cannot separate the platform from the model.
One realization. A single stochastic rupture, not an ensemble. The bias below is one draw; a second run with a different seed would give a different number.
What a pass means. Consistency with recordings at these 30 stations, for this event, under this velocity model, on this hardware, within a factor of 1.99. It is not a general statement about BBP and not a prediction of accuracy at an unrecorded site.
- mean |bias|
- 0.240
- a factor of 1.27×
- pass band
- 0.69
- a factor of 1.99×, declared before the run
- sigma
- 0.557
- station-to-station scatter
- cross-check
- 0.311
- recomputed here from the waveforms
The metric is ln(observed / simulated) RotD50 spectral acceleration, averaged over stations. Positive means the simulation under-predicts — real shaking was larger. Basis: BBP RotD50 residuals (authoritative).
Residual by period
Mean ln(obs/sim) at each spectral period. A structure responds at its own period, so agreement at one period says nothing about another.
| Period | Bias | Simulation | vs. band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1s | -0.217 | over-predicts by 24% | within |
| 0.3s | -0.295 | over-predicts by 34% | within |
| 1s | -0.700 | over-predicts by 101% | outside band |
| 3s | -0.175 | over-predicts by 19% | within |
Goodness of fit across the spectrum
Mean residual with its ±1σ band, against the pass band. Diamonds are the Broadband Platform’s own RotD50 residuals.
Engineering Ground Motion Parameters
GMPE predictions provide an independent check on the ShakeMap interpolated intensities above.
ShakeMap relies on seismic station recordings; in areas with sparse station coverage — or
for large teleseismic events and earthquakes outside dense West Coast networks — ShakeMap
MMI can be inaccurate. A significant difference between ShakeMap and GMPE estimates is a signal
that the ShakeMap result should be treated as preliminary.
Also includes site Vs30 values and raw ground motion parameters (PGA/PGV).
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Engineering Ground Motion Parameters
GMPE predictions provide an independent check on the ShakeMap interpolated intensities above. ShakeMap relies on seismic station recordings; in areas with sparse station coverage — or for large teleseismic events and earthquakes outside dense West Coast networks — ShakeMap MMI can be inaccurate. A significant difference between ShakeMap and GMPE estimates is a signal that the ShakeMap result should be treated as preliminary. Also includes site Vs30 values and raw ground motion parameters (PGA/PGV).
Est. Vs30 Values
Estimated shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m used in GMPE calculations. Ref. column shows the 760 m/s rock-site reference for comparison.
| Location | Ref. (760 m/s) | Est. Vs30 (m/s) |
|---|---|---|
|
Searles Valley
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Ridgecrest
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
China Lake Acres
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Inyokern
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
California City
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Edwards Air Force Base
CA |
760 | 709 |
|
Death Valley
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Wofford Heights
CA |
760 | 667 |
|
Weldon
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Lake Isabella
CA |
760 | 357 |
|
Lone Pine
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
North Edwards
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Kernville
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Boron
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Alta Sierra
CA |
760 | 710 |
|
Greenfield
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Mojave
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Spring Valley Lake
CA |
760 | 346 |
|
Apple Valley
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Oildale
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Earlimart
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Beatty
NV |
760 | 417 |
|
Hesperia
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Bakersfield
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Teviston
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
East Porterville
CA |
760 | 343 |
|
Golden Hills
CA |
760 | 392 |
|
Palmdale
CA |
760 | 358 |
|
Porterville
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Strathmore
CA |
760 | 343 |
|
Tehachapi
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Bodfish
CA |
760 | 710 |
|
Maricopa
CA |
760 | 354 |
|
Pixley
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Quartz Hill
CA |
760 | 322 |
|
Greenacres
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Bear Valley Springs
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Lancaster
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Desert View Highlands
CA |
760 | 365 |
|
Fort Irwin
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Lenwood
CA |
760 | 363 |
|
Lindsay
CA |
760 | 340 |
|
Poplar-Cotton Center
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Vincent
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Woodville
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Yucaipa
CA |
760 | 405 |
|
Lake Los Angeles
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Weedpatch
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Silver Lakes
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Victorville
CA |
760 | 482 |
|
Big Bear Lake
CA |
760 | 309 |
|
Lamont
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Barstow
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Calimesa
CA |
760 | 390 |
|
Arvin
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Barstow Heights
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Rosedale
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
South Taft
CA |
760 | 361 |
|
Taft
CA |
760 | 373 |
|
Taft Heights
CA |
760 | 366 |
|
Pahrump
NV |
760 | 359 |
|
Richgrove
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Ford City
CA |
760 | 374 |
|
Terra Bella
CA |
760 | 355 |
|
Stallion Springs
CA |
760 | 407 |
|
Crestline
CA |
760 | 612 |
|
Delano
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
La Verne
CA |
760 | 308 |
|
Rosamond
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Wasco
CA |
760 | 228 |
MMI vs Distance — Default Vs30 (760 m/s)
All methods using the 760 m/s rock-site reference. ShakeMap values are independent of Vs30.
MMI vs Distance — Est. Vs30
GMPEs use the Est. Vs30 values shown in the table above. ShakeMap values are independent of Vs30.
GMPE Residual — Observed − Predicted MMI
Signed residual at each seismic station. Positive values mean the GMPE underestimated shaking; negative values mean it overestimated. The dashed line at zero indicates perfect agreement.
GMPE Predicted vs. Observed MMI at Seismic Stations
Each point is one seismic station. Points on the dashed 1:1 line indicate perfect agreement; above the line = GMPE underestimated shaking; below = overestimated.
GMPE Performance — Station Observations
Statistics computed by comparing each GMPE's predicted MMI against ShakeMap observed MMI at seismic stations. Bias = mean(observed − predicted). Lower RMSE indicates better overall agreement with instrumental measurements.
| GMPE | Bias | Sigma | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASK14 | +1.41 | 0.94 | 1.69 |
| BSSA14 | +1.36 | 0.91 | 1.63 |
| CY14 | +1.13 | 0.83 | 1.40 |
| CB14 | +1.52 | 0.88 | 1.76 |
Peak Ground Motion — Seismic Station Observations
Recorded PGA and PGV at seismic stations, sorted by highest PGA. Top 25 stations shown. MMI (PGA) and MMI (PGV) are independent conversions via Worden et al. (2012) GMICE.
| Station | PGA (g) | MMI (PGA) | PGV (cm/s) | MMI (PGV) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christmas Canyon China Lake (CI.CCC) | 0.5691 | Strong(VI) | 74.781 | Extreme(X) |
| Tower 2 (CI.TOW2) | 0.4287 | Strong(VI) | 54.124 | Violent(IX) |
| Lakeland Street, Ridgecrest CA (CI.Q0072) | 0.3219 | Strong(VI) | 32.567 | Violent(IX) |
| Snort (CI.SRT) | 0.3112 | Strong(VI) | 41.913 | Violent(IX) |
| Nine Mile Canyon (CI.WNM) | 0.2249 | Moderate(V) | 8.614 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Laurel Mtn (CI.LRL) | 0.1950 | Moderate(V) | 12.702 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Volcano Peak 2 (CI.WVP2) | 0.1831 | Moderate(V) | 18.262 | Severe(VIII) |
| Bird Spring (CI.WBS) | 0.1646 | Moderate(V) | 9.537 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Shoshone (CI.SHO) | 0.1185 | Moderate(V) | 7.320 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Hanning Flat (CI.WHF) | 0.1036 | Moderate(V) | 5.436 | Strong(VI) |
| Rose Valley Canyon 2 (CI.WRV2) | 0.0996 | Moderate(V) | 14.864 | Severe(VIII) |
| Lucerne Valley 2 (CI.LUC2) | 0.0948 | Moderate(V) | 12.090 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Onyx Ranch (CI.WOR) | 0.0923 | Moderate(V) | 5.332 | Strong(VI) |
| Newberry Springs - I15 & Kathy (CE.22519) | 0.0915 | Moderate(V) | 7.468 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Rodman Mountain (CI.RMM) | 0.0886 | Moderate(V) | 7.168 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Harper Dry Lake bed (CI.HAR) | 0.0866 | Moderate(V) | 11.508 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Adelanto Receiving (CI.ADO) | 0.0759 | Moderate(V) | 10.102 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Fort Irwin - North Loop & Barstow Rd (CE.32207) | 0.0672 | Light(IV) | 5.645 | Strong(VI) |
| Helendale - Helendale & Vista (CE.23957) | 0.0653 | Light(IV) | 4.897 | Strong(VI) |
| Wilsona 2 (CI.WLS2) | 0.0643 | Light(IV) | 3.861 | Strong(VI) |
| Apollo (CI.APL) | 0.0610 | Light(IV) | 5.741 | Strong(VI) |
| Mccloud Flat (CI.WMF) | 0.0594 | Light(IV) | 9.080 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Barstow Service Center (CI.RRX) | 0.0592 | Light(IV) | 12.322 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Victorville (CI.VTV) | 0.0588 | Light(IV) | 4.879 | Strong(VI) |
| Olancha - North Haiwee Reservoir Grounds (CE.43158) | 0.0582 | Light(IV) | 6.255 | Strong(VI) |
Ground Shaking Intensities — Interpolated ShakeMap MMI
70 sitesSeismic Station Observed MMI
MMI values are derived directly from observed ground motion measurements at seismic stations and are not spatially interpolated.