Max Est. MMI
The 2014 South Napa, California Earthquake
Shaking Animations
Simulated bowling pin shaking at each city’s intensity level. Videos appear as they finish rendering.
BBP Simulation Comparison
How closely a physics-based simulation of this earthquake reproduces what the seismic network actually recorded. The simulation is run on the SCEC Broadband Platform and compared against real seismograms station by station.
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BBP Simulation Comparison
How closely a physics-based simulation of this earthquake reproduces what the seismic network actually recorded. The simulation is run on the SCEC Broadband Platform and compared against real seismograms station by station.
Emulated hardware. The simulation ran on arm64 under emulation. Amplitudes are not SCEC-reference-accurate, and this measurement cannot separate the platform from the model.
One realization. A single stochastic rupture, not an ensemble. The bias below is one draw; a second run with a different seed would give a different number.
What a pass means. Consistency with recordings at these 40 stations, for this event, under this velocity model, on this hardware, within a factor of 1.99. It is not a general statement about BBP and not a prediction of accuracy at an unrecorded site.
- mean |bias|
- 0.544
- a factor of 1.72×
- pass band
- 0.69
- a factor of 1.99×, declared before the run
- sigma
- 0.888
- station-to-station scatter
- cross-check
- 0.835
- recomputed here from the waveforms
The metric is ln(observed / simulated) RotD50 spectral acceleration, averaged over stations. Positive means the simulation under-predicts — real shaking was larger. Basis: BBP RotD50 residuals (authoritative).
Residual by period
Mean ln(obs/sim) at each spectral period. A structure responds at its own period, so agreement at one period says nothing about another.
| Period | Bias | Simulation | vs. band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1s | -1.245 | over-predicts by 247% | outside band |
| 0.3s | -0.876 | over-predicts by 140% | outside band |
| 1s | -0.901 | over-predicts by 146% | outside band |
| 3s | -0.240 | over-predicts by 27% | within |
Goodness of fit across the spectrum
Mean residual with its ±1σ band, against the pass band. Diamonds are the Broadband Platform’s own RotD50 residuals.
Engineering Ground Motion Parameters
GMPE predictions provide an independent check on the ShakeMap interpolated intensities above.
ShakeMap relies on seismic station recordings; in areas with sparse station coverage — or
for large teleseismic events and earthquakes outside dense West Coast networks — ShakeMap
MMI can be inaccurate. A significant difference between ShakeMap and GMPE estimates is a signal
that the ShakeMap result should be treated as preliminary.
Also includes site Vs30 values and raw ground motion parameters (PGA/PGV).
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Engineering Ground Motion Parameters
GMPE predictions provide an independent check on the ShakeMap interpolated intensities above. ShakeMap relies on seismic station recordings; in areas with sparse station coverage — or for large teleseismic events and earthquakes outside dense West Coast networks — ShakeMap MMI can be inaccurate. A significant difference between ShakeMap and GMPE estimates is a signal that the ShakeMap result should be treated as preliminary. Also includes site Vs30 values and raw ground motion parameters (PGA/PGV).
Est. Vs30 Values
Estimated shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m used in GMPE calculations. Ref. column shows the 760 m/s rock-site reference for comparison.
| Location | Ref. (760 m/s) | Est. Vs30 (m/s) |
|---|---|---|
|
Napa
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
American Canyon
CA |
760 | 474 |
|
Sonoma
CA |
760 | 397 |
|
Vallejo
CA |
760 | 503 |
|
Crockett
CA |
760 | 503 |
|
El Verano
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Rodeo
CA |
760 | 324 |
|
Temelec
CA |
760 | 386 |
|
Boyes Hot Springs
CA |
760 | 461 |
|
Black Point-Green Point
CA |
760 | 180 |
|
Eldridge
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Green Valley
CA |
760 | 345 |
|
Novato
CA |
760 | 331 |
|
Hercules
CA |
760 | 465 |
|
Yountville
CA |
760 | 338 |
|
Rollingwood
CA |
760 | 319 |
|
Fetters Hot Springs-Agua Caliente
CA |
760 | 441 |
|
El Sobrante
CA |
760 | 425 |
|
Agua Caliente
CA |
760 | 410 |
|
Bayview
CA |
760 | 358 |
|
Pinole
CA |
760 | 382 |
|
San Pablo
CA |
760 | 289 |
|
Montalvin
CA |
760 | 466 |
|
Tara Hills
CA |
760 | 466 |
|
Richmond
CA |
760 | 277 |
|
Vacaville
CA |
760 | 303 |
|
East Richmond Heights
CA |
760 | 725 |
|
Larkspur
CA |
760 | 347 |
|
Tiburon
CA |
760 | 432 |
|
Benicia
CA |
760 | 176 |
|
North Richmond
CA |
760 | 225 |
|
Sausalito
CA |
760 | 284 |
|
Hartley
CA |
760 | 468 |
|
Belvedere
CA |
760 | 386 |
|
Corte Madera
CA |
760 | 621 |
|
Allendale
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Petaluma
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Dixon
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
Santa Venetia
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Kenwood
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Lucas Valley-Marinwood
CA |
760 | 733 |
|
Fairfield
CA |
760 | 228 |
|
El Cerrito
CA |
760 | 397 |
|
Suisun
CA |
760 | 226 |
|
Martinez
CA |
760 | 314 |
|
San Rafael
CA |
760 | 396 |
|
Kensington
CA |
760 | 591 |
|
Berkeley
CA |
760 | 400 |
|
Albany
CA |
760 | 294 |
|
Marin City
CA |
760 | 236 |
|
Mountain View
CA |
760 | 422 |
|
Sleepy Hollow
CA |
760 | 357 |
|
Strawberry
CA |
760 | 733 |
|
Chinatown
CA |
760 | 405 |
|
Emeryville
CA |
760 | 276 |
|
Lagunitas-Forest Knolls
CA |
760 | 733 |
|
San Francisco
CA |
760 | 282 |
|
Tamalpais Valley
CA |
760 | 516 |
|
Tamalpais-Homestead Valley
CA |
760 | 392 |
|
San Anselmo
CA |
760 | 375 |
|
Vine Hill
CA |
760 | 366 |
|
Broadmoor
CA |
760 | 316 |
|
Chinatown
CA |
760 | 319 |
|
Danville
CA |
760 | 335 |
|
Parkside
CA |
760 | 342 |
|
Fairfax
CA |
760 | 421 |
|
Oakland
CA |
760 | 313 |
|
Mission District
CA |
760 | 249 |
|
Alameda
CA |
760 | 279 |
|
Bayview-Hunters Point
CA |
760 | 577 |
|
Bolinas
CA |
760 | 514 |
|
Daly City
CA |
760 | 437 |
|
Noe Valley
CA |
760 | 495 |
|
Orinda
CA |
760 | 469 |
|
Piedmont
CA |
760 | 733 |
|
Visitacion Valley
CA |
760 | 733 |
|
Ross
CA |
760 | 353 |
|
San Bruno
CA |
760 | 386 |
|
Mill Valley
CA |
760 | 583 |
|
San Leandro
CA |
760 | 293 |
|
Woodacre
CA |
760 | 711 |
|
Pacifica
CA |
760 | 352 |
|
Colma
CA |
760 | 405 |
|
Brisbane
CA |
760 | 733 |
|
Camp Meeker
CA |
760 | 733 |
|
Diablo
CA |
760 | 399 |
|
Forestville
CA |
760 | 468 |
|
Millbrae
CA |
760 | 399 |
|
Occidental
CA |
760 | 729 |
|
South San Francisco
CA |
760 | 389 |
MMI vs Distance — Default Vs30 (760 m/s)
All methods using the 760 m/s rock-site reference. ShakeMap values are independent of Vs30.
MMI vs Distance — Est. Vs30
GMPEs use the Est. Vs30 values shown in the table above. ShakeMap values are independent of Vs30.
GMPE Residual — Observed − Predicted MMI
Signed residual at each seismic station. Positive values mean the GMPE underestimated shaking; negative values mean it overestimated. The dashed line at zero indicates perfect agreement.
GMPE Predicted vs. Observed MMI at Seismic Stations
Each point is one seismic station. Points on the dashed 1:1 line indicate perfect agreement; above the line = GMPE underestimated shaking; below = overestimated.
GMPE Performance — Station Observations
Statistics computed by comparing each GMPE's predicted MMI against ShakeMap observed MMI at seismic stations. Bias = mean(observed − predicted). Lower RMSE indicates better overall agreement with instrumental measurements.
| GMPE | Bias | Sigma | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASK14 | -0.17 | 0.90 | 0.92 |
| BSSA14 | -0.31 | 0.83 | 0.89 |
| CY14 | -0.05 | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| CB14 | -0.22 | 0.83 | 0.86 |
Peak Ground Motion — Seismic Station Observations
Recorded PGA and PGV at seismic stations, sorted by highest PGA. Top 25 stations shown. MMI (PGA) and MMI (PGV) are independent conversions via Worden et al. (2012) GMICE.
| Station | PGA (g) | MMI (PGA) | PGV (cm/s) | MMI (PGV) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main St Napa (NC.N016) | 0.6468 | Strong(VI) | 34.416 | Violent(IX) |
| CA:Napa;Main Street (--.N016) | 0.6186 | Strong(VI) | 48.118 | Violent(IX) |
| Vallejo - Broadway & Sereno CGS Data: Acceleration (--.68294) | 0.4685 | Strong(VI) | 17.735 | Severe(VIII) |
| Vallejo - Broadway & Sereno (CE.68294) | 0.4660 | Strong(VI) | 17.396 | Severe(VIII) |
| CA:Napa;FS 3 (NP.1765) | 0.4507 | Strong(VI) | 86.866 | Extreme(X) |
| CA:Napa;FS 3 (US.1765) | 0.4266 | Strong(VI) | 91.050 | Extreme(X) |
| Crockett - Carquinez Br Geotech Array #2 (CE.68259) | 0.4240 | Strong(VI) | 19.779 | Severe(VIII) |
| Huichica Creek (NC.NHC) | 0.4029 | Strong(VI) | 59.781 | Violent(IX) |
| Mare Island (NC.NMI) | 0.3774 | Strong(VI) | 19.025 | Severe(VIII) |
| Napa - Napa College CGS Data: Acceleration (--.68150) | 0.3753 | Strong(VI) | 56.900 | Violent(IX) |
| MARE ISLAND METERS FAC+EEP/v3. (US.NMI) | 0.3683 | Strong(VI) | 19.086 | Severe(VIII) |
| Napa - Napa College (CE.68150) | 0.3580 | Strong(VI) | 54.768 | Violent(IX) |
| Vallejo Fire Station 21 (NP.1759) | 0.3455 | Strong(VI) | 17.074 | Severe(VIII) |
| Kruezer Lane (YK.KRE) | 0.3408 | Strong(VI) | 25.908 | Severe(VIII) |
| CA:Vallejo;FS 1 (US.1759) | 0.3294 | Strong(VI) | 21.238 | Severe(VIII) |
| Lovall Valley Loop Rd (NC.N019B) | 0.2766 | Moderate(V) | 37.367 | Violent(IX) |
| Pinole - Adobe & Pinole Valley Rd (CE.58368) | 0.2029 | Moderate(V) | 12.112 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Pinole - Adobe & Pinole Valley Rd CGS Data: Acceleration (--.58368) | 0.2027 | Moderate(V) | 11.926 | Very Strong(VII) |
| CA:Anderson Springs (NP.ADSP) | 0.1743 | Moderate(V) | 1.826 | Moderate(V) |
| CA:Anderson Springs (US.ADSP) | 0.1736 | Moderate(V) | 2.578 | Moderate(V) |
| CA:Anderson Springs;Town Pool (NP.ADS2) | 0.1612 | Moderate(V) | 1.477 | Moderate(V) |
| CA:Anderson Springs;Town Pool (US.ADS2) | 0.1593 | Moderate(V) | 1.857 | Moderate(V) |
| CA:Arnold;Glen Ellen FS (US.1848) | 0.1527 | Moderate(V) | 9.907 | Very Strong(VII) |
| CA:Santa Rosa; FS7 (US.1835) | 0.1521 | Moderate(V) | 7.395 | Very Strong(VII) |
| Sonoma FS 1 (NP.1829) | 0.1427 | Moderate(V) | 24.930 | Severe(VIII) |
Ground Shaking Intensities — Interpolated ShakeMap MMI
90 sitesSeismic Station Observed MMI
MMI values are derived directly from observed ground motion measurements at seismic stations and are not spatially interpolated.