Back to M5.6 — 11 km N of Redwood Valley, CA

Observed vs Simulated — Goodness of Fit

A physics-based simulation of this earthquake, compared against the seismograms the network actually recorded. M5.59 11 km N of Redwood Valley, CA · 2026-06-24 15:10:40 UTC

Download the full report (PDF) Includes per-station waveform and displacement pages. Generated 2026-08-04T22:14:25Z · BBP job job_7827afbe58cc416695ae

Before reading the result

What this measurement does and does not establish.

Emulated hardware. The simulation ran on arm64 under emulation. Amplitudes are not SCEC-reference-accurate, and this measurement cannot separate the platform from the model.

One realization. A single stochastic rupture, not an ensemble. The bias below is one draw; a second run with a different seed would give a different number.

What a pass means. Consistency with recordings at these 40 stations, for this event, under this velocity model, on this hardware, within a factor of 1.99. It is not a general statement about BBP and not a prediction of accuracy at an unrecorded site.

Result

Mean within pass band 40 stations · 63 spectral periods · BBP simulated

mean |bias|: 0.370; a factor of 1.45×
pass band: 0.69; a factor of 1.99×, declared before the run
sigma: 0.577; station-to-station scatter
cross-check: 0.446; recomputed here from the waveforms

The metric is ln(observed / simulated) RotD50 spectral acceleration, averaged over stations. Positive means the simulation under-predicts — real shaking was larger. Basis: BBP RotD50 residuals (authoritative).

Residual by period

Mean ln(obs/sim) at each spectral period. A structure responds at its own period, so agreement at one period says nothing about another.

Period	Bias	Simulation	Factor	vs. band
0.1s	-0.655	over-predicts by 93%	1.93×	within
0.3s	-0.177	over-predicts by 19%	1.19×	within
1s	+0.354	under-predicts by 42%	1.42×	within
3s	+0.775	under-predicts by 117%	2.17×	outside band

Read the mean with this in mind. The mean is within the pass band, but the residual at 3s is outside it — the simulation under-predicts by 117% at 3s. A single mean over periods cannot represent that.

Goodness of fit across the spectrum

Mean residual with its ±1σ band, against the pass band. Diamonds are the Broadband Platform’s own RotD50 residuals; the line is this report’s independent recomputation from the waveforms.

Where the stations are

Each station coloured by its PGA residual. Red means the simulation under-predicted the recording; blue means it over-predicted.

Map of compared stations coloured by residual

Station summary — three independent sources

40 stations with both a recording and a simulated seismogram. Scroll sideways for the full set of columns.

Station	Dist (km)	Vs30 BBP	Vs30 ShakeMap	Chan	PGA (g) ShakeMap	PGA (g) obspy	PGA (g) BBP	PGV (cm/s) ShakeMap	PGV (cm/s) obspy	PGV (cm/s) BBP	PGD (cm) obspy	PGD (cm) BBP	PGD obs/sim	ln(obs/ sim)	Flags
BK.BARR	6.9	730	730	HNE	0.4188	0.4122	0.1210	14.1	15.3	5.9	2.02	1.16	1.74x	+1.226	—
NC.GVA	8.8	758	758	HNE	0.1586	0.1579	0.0842	22.9	22.7	3.6	5.01	0.73	6.89x	+0.628	—
BK.DCMP	15.1	709	709	HNE	0.1026	0.0668	0.1368	3.5	3.3	5.4	0.86	1.21	0.71x	-0.717	—
NC.GWR	18.5	500	500	HNE	0.0867	0.0836	0.0770	2.9	2.9	5.5	0.41	0.66	0.62x	+0.083	—
CE.79344	19.7	542	542	HNE	0.0853	0.0846	0.0645	3.0	3.0	4.2	0.71	0.97	0.73x	+0.271	—
CE.79666	19.8	348	348	HNE	0.1408	0.1381	0.0841	8.1	8.2	6.1	1.59	1.84	0.86x	+0.496	—
BK.ORRS	20.3	497	497	HNE	0.1008	0.0995	0.0839	11.1	10.7	5.9	2.11	1.40	1.51x	+0.170	—
BK.BEVN	28.2	754	754	HNE	0.1108	0.1104	0.0349	7.6	7.5	1.4	0.77	0.23	3.36x	+1.152	—
BK.SHWD	28.3	496	496	HNE	0.0273	0.0273	0.0544	2.6	2.7	4.4	0.79	0.85	0.93x	-0.691	—
NC.GCWB	29.0	753	753	HNE	0.0426	0.0406	0.0292	2.6	2.7	2.8	0.56	0.47	1.20x	+0.331	—
BK.HULL	30.0	756	756	HNE	0.0208	0.0209	0.0272	2.4	2.5	1.8	0.48	0.38	1.26x	-0.262	—
NC.GMR	32.8	496	496	HNE	0.0268	0.0268	0.0394	2.2	2.1	2.5	0.76	0.46	1.66x	-0.386	—
NC.GNR	39.3	495	495	HNE	0.0363	0.0358	0.0265	3.2	3.1	2.3	0.80	0.55	1.46x	+0.303	—
BK.ETSL	42.6	755	755	HNE	0.0031	0.0031	0.0210	0.6	0.6	1.4	0.20	0.16	1.26x	-1.910	Outl
BK.BONV	43.0	689	689	HNE	0.0234	0.0232	0.0290	1.6	1.7	1.5	0.29	0.15	1.93x	-0.224	—
BK.HOPS	43.2	734	734	HNE	0.0147	0.0144	0.0236	1.3	1.3	1.7	0.55	0.37	1.49x	-0.494	—
NC.GHGB	43.6	746	746	HNE	0.0328	0.0323	0.0204	2.0	2.0	1.1	0.47	0.23	2.02x	+0.462	—
NC.GHO	44.4	494	494	HNE	0.0232	0.0232	0.0291	2.7	2.7	1.5	0.56	0.33	1.71x	-0.227	—
BK.MNDO	44.7	414	414	HNE	0.0245	0.0242	0.0277	1.9	1.9	1.6	0.45	0.48	0.95x	-0.133	—
NC.GSN	47.0	616	616	HNE	0.0100	0.0099	0.0224	1.5	1.5	1.5	0.46	0.38	1.21x	-0.815	—
NC.GBL	49.5	443	443	HNE	0.0356	0.0355	0.0247	2.9	2.8	1.7	0.61	0.44	1.38x	+0.363	—
CE.79016	50.5	366	366	HNE	0.0081	0.0078	0.0293	0.6	0.5	2.1	0.16	0.25	0.65x	-1.323	—
BK.GTSB	54.1	755	755	HNE	0.0066	0.0066	0.0136	1.0	1.0	0.9	0.24	0.13	1.86x	-0.725	—
NC.KIP	54.1	522	522	HNE	0.0077	0.0075	0.0195	0.8	0.8	1.7	0.20	0.32	0.63x	-0.957	—
NC.GSR	54.9	750	750	HNE	0.0176	0.0175	0.0155	1.7	1.7	0.9	0.37	0.12	3.04x	+0.124	—
BK.GALB	55.7	486	486	HNE	0.0064	0.0061	0.0177	0.6	0.6	1.2	0.26	0.24	1.07x	-1.059	—
BK.SPAN	56.6	494	494	HNE	0.0274	0.0271	0.0180	2.2	2.1	1.3	0.41	0.27	1.51x	+0.406	—
NC.GTK	58.7	708	708	HNE	0.0305	0.0304	0.0134	3.8	3.8	0.9	1.20	0.20	5.95x	+0.821	Outl
BK.RVIT	61.8	752	752	HNE	0.0120	0.0119	0.0117	1.2	1.3	0.7	0.26	0.19	1.35x	+0.011	—
NC.GPM	62.5	708	708	HNE	0.0151	0.0150	0.0138	1.3	1.5	0.8	0.42	0.26	1.61x	+0.086	—
CE.68035	64.0	705	705	HNE	0.0121	0.0121	0.0135	1.4	1.6	0.8	0.46	0.20	2.33x	-0.107	—
NC.GWW	64.4	493	493	HNE	0.0190	0.0191	0.0208	2.2	2.2	1.1	0.35	0.14	2.43x	-0.085	—
BK.HALS	65.9	495	495	HNE	0.0081	0.0083	0.0151	1.5	1.5	0.9	0.21	0.26	0.81x	-0.602	—
NC.GRT	67.3	710	710	HNE	0.0489	0.0478	0.0120	5.0	5.0	0.6	0.69	0.15	4.63x	+1.386	Outl
NC.GCVB	68.5	607	607	HNE	0.0096	0.0095	0.0115	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.29	0.27	1.07x	-0.191	—
NC.KBSB	69.0	751	751	HNE	0.0049	0.0049	0.0143	1.1	1.1	0.8	0.31	0.22	1.39x	-1.061	—
BK.GCKB	71.0	532	532	HNE	0.0042	0.0041	0.0150	1.0	0.9	1.2	0.25	0.23	1.08x	-1.286	—
NC.GDXB	72.1	728	728	HNE	0.0025	0.0025	0.0138	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.20	0.19	1.05x	-1.720	—
NC.GWKB	72.2	749	749	HNE	0.0119	0.0117	0.0109	1.4	1.5	0.8	0.36	0.10	3.64x	+0.076	—
NC.GGPC	73.8	691	691	HNE	0.0054	0.0054	0.0098	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.21	0.21	0.97x	-0.599	—

ShakeMap = amplitudes the seismic network reported in stationlist.json. obspy = the same recordings fetched from FDSN and processed here. BBP = simulated. The first two should agree closely; where they do not, the ShakeMap quality flags usually explain why.
PGD is the animation pipeline's own number on both sides, read from the displacement each side hands to Blender — a different processing chain from the PGA and PGV columns, and from each other. See the displacement pages at the end.

Cross-check — how far apart are the two ‘observed’ sources?

The amplitudes the network reported in ShakeMap against the same recordings re-fetched and processed here. These should agree closely; where they do not, the ShakeMap quality flags usually explain why. A systematic offset here would be a processing fault, not physics.

Observed amplitude cross-check versus distance

Residual against distance

A trend with distance points at the attenuation model rather than the source: the simulation losing energy faster or slower than the real crust does.

Residual versus distance at four periods

Response spectra, station by station

Observed and simulated response spectra at every compared station.

Per-station detail

Nearest first. Open a station for its three-component waveform overlay and the displacement record that drives the shaking animations. Figures load when opened.

BK.BARR 6.9 km PGA obs 0.4122 g · sim 0.1210 g ln(obs/sim) +1.226

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.BARR

NC.GVA 8.8 km PGA obs 0.1579 g · sim 0.0842 g ln(obs/sim) +0.628

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GVA

BK.DCMP 15.1 km PGA obs 0.0668 g · sim 0.1368 g ln(obs/sim) -0.717

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.DCMP

NC.GWR 18.5 km PGA obs 0.0836 g · sim 0.0770 g ln(obs/sim) +0.083

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GWR

CE.79344 19.7 km PGA obs 0.0846 g · sim 0.0645 g ln(obs/sim) +0.271

Observed versus simulated acceleration at CE.79344

CE.79666 19.8 km PGA obs 0.1381 g · sim 0.0841 g ln(obs/sim) +0.496

Observed versus simulated acceleration at CE.79666

BK.ORRS 20.3 km PGA obs 0.0995 g · sim 0.0839 g ln(obs/sim) +0.170

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.ORRS

BK.BEVN 28.2 km PGA obs 0.1104 g · sim 0.0349 g ln(obs/sim) +1.152

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.BEVN

BK.SHWD 28.3 km PGA obs 0.0273 g · sim 0.0544 g ln(obs/sim) -0.691

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.SHWD

NC.GCWB 29.0 km PGA obs 0.0406 g · sim 0.0292 g ln(obs/sim) +0.331

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GCWB

BK.HULL 30.0 km PGA obs 0.0209 g · sim 0.0272 g ln(obs/sim) -0.262

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.HULL

NC.GMR 32.8 km PGA obs 0.0268 g · sim 0.0394 g ln(obs/sim) -0.386

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GMR

NC.GNR 39.3 km PGA obs 0.0358 g · sim 0.0265 g ln(obs/sim) +0.303

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GNR

BK.ETSL 42.6 km PGA obs 0.0031 g · sim 0.0210 g ln(obs/sim) -1.910

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.ETSL

BK.BONV 43.0 km PGA obs 0.0232 g · sim 0.0290 g ln(obs/sim) -0.224

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.BONV

BK.HOPS 43.2 km PGA obs 0.0144 g · sim 0.0236 g ln(obs/sim) -0.494

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.HOPS

NC.GHGB 43.6 km PGA obs 0.0323 g · sim 0.0204 g ln(obs/sim) +0.462

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GHGB

NC.GHO 44.4 km PGA obs 0.0232 g · sim 0.0291 g ln(obs/sim) -0.227

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GHO

BK.MNDO 44.7 km PGA obs 0.0242 g · sim 0.0277 g ln(obs/sim) -0.133

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.MNDO

NC.GSN 47.0 km PGA obs 0.0099 g · sim 0.0224 g ln(obs/sim) -0.815

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GSN

NC.GBL 49.5 km PGA obs 0.0355 g · sim 0.0247 g ln(obs/sim) +0.363

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GBL

CE.79016 50.5 km PGA obs 0.0078 g · sim 0.0293 g ln(obs/sim) -1.323

Observed versus simulated acceleration at CE.79016

BK.GTSB 54.1 km PGA obs 0.0066 g · sim 0.0136 g ln(obs/sim) -0.725

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.GTSB

NC.KIP 54.1 km PGA obs 0.0075 g · sim 0.0195 g ln(obs/sim) -0.957

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.KIP

NC.GSR 54.9 km PGA obs 0.0175 g · sim 0.0155 g ln(obs/sim) +0.124

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GSR

BK.GALB 55.7 km PGA obs 0.0061 g · sim 0.0177 g ln(obs/sim) -1.059

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.GALB

BK.SPAN 56.6 km PGA obs 0.0271 g · sim 0.0180 g ln(obs/sim) +0.406

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.SPAN

NC.GTK 58.7 km PGA obs 0.0304 g · sim 0.0134 g ln(obs/sim) +0.821

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GTK

BK.RVIT 61.8 km PGA obs 0.0119 g · sim 0.0117 g ln(obs/sim) +0.011

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.RVIT

NC.GPM 62.5 km PGA obs 0.0150 g · sim 0.0138 g ln(obs/sim) +0.086

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GPM

CE.68035 64.0 km PGA obs 0.0121 g · sim 0.0135 g ln(obs/sim) -0.107

Observed versus simulated acceleration at CE.68035

NC.GWW 64.4 km PGA obs 0.0191 g · sim 0.0208 g ln(obs/sim) -0.085

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GWW

BK.HALS 65.9 km PGA obs 0.0083 g · sim 0.0151 g ln(obs/sim) -0.602

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.HALS

NC.GRT 67.3 km PGA obs 0.0478 g · sim 0.0120 g ln(obs/sim) +1.386

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GRT

NC.GCVB 68.5 km PGA obs 0.0095 g · sim 0.0115 g ln(obs/sim) -0.191

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GCVB

NC.KBSB 69.0 km PGA obs 0.0049 g · sim 0.0143 g ln(obs/sim) -1.061

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.KBSB

BK.GCKB 71.0 km PGA obs 0.0041 g · sim 0.0150 g ln(obs/sim) -1.286

Observed versus simulated acceleration at BK.GCKB

NC.GDXB 72.1 km PGA obs 0.0025 g · sim 0.0138 g ln(obs/sim) -1.720

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GDXB

NC.GWKB 72.2 km PGA obs 0.0117 g · sim 0.0109 g ln(obs/sim) +0.076

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GWKB

NC.GGPC 73.8 km PGA obs 0.0054 g · sim 0.0098 g ln(obs/sim) -0.599

Observed versus simulated acceleration at NC.GGPC

Provenance

Simulation

produced by: BBP simulated
BBP job id: job_7827afbe58cc416695ae
BBP version: 22.4.0
method: GP
realizations: 1 of 1 succeeded — a single stochastic rupture, not an ensemble; the bias below is one draw
realization used: r0001
sites in job spec: —
job submitted: 2026-08-04T21:54:40Z
per-site Vs30 from: submit-time record (/app/plots/gof_work/nc75382936/compare/station_specs.json)

Source parameters

magnitude used: —
hypocentre: —
depth: —
strike / dip / rake: —
mechanism source: USGS moment tensor, nodal plane 1 — the conjugate plane is equally consistent with the tensor and gives different amplitudes

Velocity model

region used: NoCal500
native for this location: Mojave500 — not installed, so the run is approximate. LABasin500 carries a deep sedimentary basin that Ridgecrest does not have, which would amplify 0.3-1 s motion.
calibration: M5.59 against GP's ~M5.5 floor
platform: arm64 under emulation — amplitudes are not SCEC-reference-accurate; this number measures BBP plus Rosetta and cannot separate them

Observed data and processing

Station selection

search radius: 100.0 km
policy: all usable within radius
stations on event: 639
without FDSN code: 0 — cannot be queried at all
candidates: 67
usable records: 65 (2 returned no usable 3-component set)
in this report: 40 with both observed and simulated
distance range: 6.9 – 73.8 km

Instrumentation

channel priority: HN?, EN?, HH?, BH?, EH?
channels used: HN
data centres: NCEDC
mixed instrument types: no
Vs30 source: ShakeMap stationlist (per-station)

Signal processing

window: origin −60.0 s to +300.0 s (requested)
records not starting as requested: none
response removal: to acceleration and velocity separately, pre-filter (0.05, 0.1, 20.0, 25.0) Hz
resampled to: 100.0 Hz
time origin: t = 0 is the rupture origin for both observed and simulated traces on every overlay

How to read this report

The metric

definition: ln(observed / simulated) RotD50 spectral acceleration, averaged across stations at each period.
sign: POSITIVE means the simulation under-predicts — real shaking was larger. NEGATIVE means it over-predicts.
scale: It is a log ratio: ±0.10 is about ±10%, ±0.69 is a factor of 2, ±1.10 is a factor of 3.
sigma: The station-to-station spread around that average. A large sigma with a small bias means the model is right on average and wrong site by site.

Reading the pattern

short-period poor, long-period good: Points at high-frequency attenuation or near-surface site response rather than the source.
long-period poor, short-period good: Points at the source — corner frequency, stress drop — or at basin response in the velocity model.
one station far off: Usually 3D site or directivity effects that a 1D layered velocity model cannot reproduce by construction. Check whether it is driving the sigma before treating it as model error.

What this does not tell you

: A pass means the simulation is consistent with recordings at these stations, for this event, under this velocity model, on this hardware. It is not a general statement about BBP, and it is not a prediction of accuracy at an unrecorded site.